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Weekly Oil Dashboard October 03, 2022

Brent down to 87.2 US$/b, under pressure from monetary tightening


Crude oil prices fell last week under pressure from concerns that aggressive central bank monetary tightening is increasing the risk of a recession and the reduction in oil demand that could result.

On a weekly average, Brent on the London futures market lost $2.6/b (-2.9%) to $87.2/b and WTI in New York lost $3.4/b ( -4.2%) at $79.6/bbl (Fig. 1 and 2). The consensus of economists surveyed by Bloomberg as of September 30 is also down with a median price of Brent in 2022 at 101.7 $/b (on average over the year 2022 Brent is at 102.5 $/b) and 94 .6 $/bbl in 2023. For the fourth quarter, however, several Wall Street banks are forecasting a rebound in crude prices despite growing fears of a global slowdown: JPMorgan Chase forecasts that London Brent will reach $101/bbl for the last three months of 2022, while the Goldman Sachs group sees $125/bbl and Morgan Stanley $95/bbl.


Online crude oil price: Brent and WTI market

 








 

This is the paradox of the current period. As Europe stands on the brink of a major energy crisis with a embargo on Russian oil due to start in December, and growing gas supplies reduced with the stoppage of Russian gas deliveries to Italy this weekend (after Germany and France) and the attack on two Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, crude prices are down nearly 13% this quarter.


View our full Crude Oil Market Report - Week of 03/10/2022 .




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